How Vulnerable Is Wiley?
An analyst tracking Wiley thinks their goose may be cooked, but their problems are just a symptom of a bigger mistake
While everyone is watching what happens with OpenAI and ChatGPT, a lesson in short-sighted corporate governance continues to unfold in our midst — namely, the story of how John Wiley & Sons ignored business fundamentals, overshot on OA strategies, overpaid to acquire an OA publisher (Hindawi) — a publisher many experts sensed was trouble — and ended up eating a massive loss when it was faced with irrefutable evidence that Hindawi was up to no good. As a result, the company saw its stock tank, was forced to remove its CEO, and has seen its market position persistently devalued.
Talk about a nightmare scenario.
Now months later, and financial analysts can’t avoid the fact that Wiley’s main value still comes not from its OA moves (quite the opposite — that’s where risk and devaluation has come from), but from its recurring revenue businesses, noting in a recent analysis that the main reason to recommend holding Wiley stock is: